{"id":14997,"date":"2026-04-09T13:07:01","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T05:07:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.novel086.top\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/yilangzhanzhengduijingjidesunhaibinixiangxiangdegengyanzhong\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T13:07:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T05:07:01","slug":"yilangzhanzhengduijingjidesunhaibinixiangxiangdegengyanzhong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.novel086.top\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/yilangzhanzhengduijingjidesunhaibinixiangxiangdegengyanzhong\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\u6bd4\u4f60\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<address>JAMIE MARTIN<\/address>\n<p><time datetime=\"2026-04-09 12:42:16\">2026\u5e744\u67089\u65e5<\/time><\/p>\n<figure><img data-opt-id=912427215  fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.weserv.nl\/?url=static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/04\/09\/multimedia\/09martin-lhzg\/09martin-lhzg-master1050.jpg\" width=\"1050\" height=\"700\" \/><figcaption> <cite>Damon Winter\/The New York Times<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<section>\n<p>1910\u5e74\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u82f1\u56fd\u8bb0\u8005\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u5927\u5e7b\u89c9\u300b(The Great Illusion)\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u582a\u79f0\u53f2\u4e0a\u201c\u6700\u4e0d\u5408\u65f6\u5b9c\u7684\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u201d\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\u8bfa\u66fc\u00b7\u5b89\u5409\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e5\u76ca\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u8d62\u5f97\u4e00\u573a\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5fb7\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u82f1\u56fd\u5e76\u593a\u8d70\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6240\u6709\u9ec4\u91d1\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4f7f\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5904\u5883\u6bd4\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u8fd8\u8981\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b89\u683c\u5c14\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6218\u4e89\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ee4\u51b2\u7a81\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u548c\u7834\u574f\u6027\u90fd\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u56db\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u57281914\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e92\u8054\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u6218\u573a\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u540e\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e3a\u671f\u4e24\u5468\u7684\u505c\u706b\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u6218\u4e89\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u4ee4\u4eba\u8b66\u9192\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f15\u53d1\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u5f71\u54cd\u5f80\u5f80\u9700\u8981\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u624d\u4f1a\u663e\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u53d1\u52a8\u653b\u51fb\u65f6\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u5c01\u9501\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/world\/factbox-the-strait-of-hormuz-iran-and-the-risk-idUSL01618779\/\">\u672c\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916<\/a>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u89c1\u5176\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff1a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/13\/world\/middleeast\/oil-supply-shock-1973-embargo.html\" title=\"Link: https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/13\/world\/middleeast\/oil-supply-shock-1973-embargo.html\">\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad<\/a>\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u539f\u6599\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u79bb\u4e0d\u5f00\u5b83\u4eec\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/27\/business\/economy\/fertilizer-food-supply-iran-war.html\">\u7528\u4e8e<\/a>\u79cd\u690d\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7cae\u98df\u4f5c\u7269\u7684\u5c3f\u7d20\u548c\u6c28\u3001\u7528\u4e8e\u5236\u9020\u82af\u7247\u7684<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8d715a36-ddb0-4dec-95c9-9a9b1214d873\">\u6c26\u6c14<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;opi=89978449&amp;url=https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-02\/us-naphtha-exports-surge-as-trump-s-military-actions-upend-trade&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiKjrjy19uTAxXtl4kEHfPjLPMQFnoECCQQAQ&amp;usg=AOvVaw1URHgDcp8ww6-P0OL73PQq\">\u77f3\u8111\u6cb9<\/a>\u2014\u2014\u5236\u9020\u5783\u573e\u888b\u548c\u77ff\u6cc9\u6c34\u74f6\u7b49\u65e5\u5e38\u5851\u6599\u5236\u54c1\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u54c1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u52a8\u8361\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u30021914\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u5c1a\u672a\u6b63\u5f0f\u7206\u53d1\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u91cd\u5927\u51b2\u7a81\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u679c\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5965\u5730\u5229\u5927\u516c\u5f17\u6717\u8328\u00b7\u6590\u8fea\u5357\u53ca\u5176\u59bb\u5b50\u7d22\u83f2\u9047\u523a\u5e76\u672a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u5965\u5308\u5e1d\u56fd\u5411\u585e\u5c14\u7ef4\u4e9a\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u540e\u901a\u7252\u2014\u2014\u88ab\u666e\u904d\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u6218\u4e89\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u2014\u2014\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e00\u573a\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u907f\u9669\u6f6e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u50a8\u6237\u7eb7\u7eb7\u629b\u552e\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4e89\u76f8\u5151\u6362\u9ec4\u91d1\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u6324\u5151\u73b0\u8c61\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u4f26\u6566\u5230\u7ea6\u7ff0\u5185\u65af\u5821\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u548c\u6089\u5c3c\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u5173\u95ed\u4e86\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4f26\u6566\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\u51e0\u8fd1<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lbma.org.uk\/alchemist\/issue-73\/the-great-financial-crisis-of-1914\">\u5d29\u6e83<\/a>\u3002\u5404\u5730\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u90fd\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5f00\u5c55\u4e1a\u52a1\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u6e20\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u822a\u8fd0\u9677\u5165\u762b\u75ea\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u573a\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u6d77\u4e0a\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u7528\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u8239\u53ea\u548c\u8d27\u7269\u6ede\u7559\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u7684\u6e2f\u53e3\u65e5\u76ca\u62e5\u5835\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6d77\u4e0a\u5c01\u9501\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fb7\u56fd\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u4f7f\u5f97\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53ea\u80fd\u5438\u6536\u6b63\u5e38\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u7684\u6781\u5c0f\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u897f\u7ebf\u6218\u573a\u5c1a\u672a\u6709\u6218\u58d5\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u5c31\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u6253\u51fb\uff1a\u4fe1\u8d37\u6d88\u5931\u3001\u8239\u8fd0\u4e2d\u65ad\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u840e\u7f29\u3002\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u7acb\u523b\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u5b83\u6ce2\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u4e14\u6781\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\uff1a\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u98d9\u5347\u548c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u52a8\u8361\u3002\u52301915\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5546\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u534f\u7ea6\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u7acb\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f00\u59cb\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u8239\u53ea\u91cd\u65b0\u8d77\u822a\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6539\u9053\u81f3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u822a\u7ebf\u548c\u65b0\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u8fd8\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6765\u81ea\u667a\u5229\u7684\u785d\u9178\u76d0\u548c\u6765\u81ea\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u9ec4\u9ebb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\u5df2\u7ecf\u9020\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1914\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u8054\u624b\uff0c\u633d\u6551\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u4e3b\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u514d\u4e8e\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u6050\u614c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5f97\u4ee5<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/j.ctt6wpzqt\">\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b<\/a>\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u51e0\u4e4e\u5728\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5267\u70c8\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8239\u8236\u77ed\u7f3a\u3001\u6d77\u8fd0\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u53ca\u8fd0\u8d39\u4e0a\u6da8\u63a8\u9ad8\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5fc5\u9700\u54c1\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6218\u4e89\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u538b\u529b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\uff1b\u52301918\u5e74\u548c1919\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0a\u6da8\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u9762\u5305\u4ef7\u683c\u57281913\u5e74\u81f31920\u5e74\u95f4<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/files\/docs\/publications\/bls\/bls_0300_1922.pdf\" title=\"Link: https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/files\/docs\/publications\/bls\/bls_0300_1922.pdf\">\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4fe1\u8d37\u3001\u822a\u8fd0\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u5d29\u584c\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u603b\u91cf\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u5230\u6218\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u8017\u8d39\u4e86\u591a\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u8d3e\u514b\u65af<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/davidjacks.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/The-First-Great-Trade-Collapse.pdf\">\u4f30\u8ba1<\/a>\uff0c\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u6700\u521d\u4e24\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u8fd125%\u2014\u2014\u6bd42008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7684\u964d\u5e45\u8fd8\u8981\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u80dc\u56fd\u4e5f\u672a\u80fd\u5e78\u514d\u3002\u6218\u540e\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u7f51\u7edc\u5c31\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u7ed5\u5f00\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6b63\u5728\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d7\u76ca\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6b64\u540e\u518d\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u6062\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u8fdc\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u76f8\u63d0\u5e76\u8bba\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u8fd9\u4e00<a 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href=\"https:\/\/cn.nytimes.com\/opinion\/20260407\/iran-war-strait-hormuz\/\" title=\"Link: https:\/\/cn.nytimes.com\/opinion\/20260407\/iran-war-strait-hormuz\/\">\u53ea\u9700<\/a>\u7528\u5ec9\u4ef7\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u5a01\u80c1\u51e0\u8258\u6cb9\u8f6e\u5c31\u80fd\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f0a\u6717\u73b0\u5728\u5411\u901a\u8fc7\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u8239\u53ea\u6536\u8d39\uff0c\u5e76\u5a01\u80c1\u51fb\u6c89\u4e0d\u4ed8\u8d39\u7684\u8239\u53ea\uff0c\u8fd0\u8d39\u548c\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u773c\u4e0b\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6c34\u7a3b\u7b49\u7cae\u98df\u4f5c\u7269\u7684<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/show\/farmers-warn-of-food-price-spike-as-war-drives-up-fuel-and-fertilizer-costs\" title=\"Link: 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